Thursday, January 14, 2010

Don't like the numbers? Change them!














In the search for power, nothing is safe, not even cold numbers-- as Michael Boskin reports in The Wall Street Journal:

Politicians and scientists who don't like what their data show lately have simply taken to changing the numbers. They believe that their end—socialism, global climate regulation, health-care legislation, repudiating debt commitments, la gloire française—justifies throwing out even minimum standards of accuracy. It appears that no numbers are immune: not GDP, not inflation, not budget, not job or cost estimates, and certainly not temperature. A CEO or CFO issuing such massaged numbers would land in jail.
The late economist Paul Samuelson called the national income accounts that measure real GDP and inflation "one of the greatest achievements of the twentieth century." Yet politicians from Europe to South America are now clamoring for alternatives that make them look better.
A commission appointed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy suggests heavily weighting "stability" indicators such as "security" and "equality" when calculating GDP. And voilà!—France outperforms the U.S., despite the fact that its per capita income is 30% lower. Nobel laureate Ed Prescott called this disparity the difference between "prosperity and depression" in a 2002 paper—and attributed it entirely to France's higher taxes.
With Venezuela in recession by conventional GDP measures, President Hugo Chávez declared the GDP to be a capitalist plot. He wants a new, socialist-friendly way to measure the economy. Maybe East Germans were better off than their cousins in the West when the Berlin Wall fell; starving North Koreans are really better off than their relatives in South Korea; the 300 million Chinese lifted out of abject poverty in the last three decades were better off under Mao; and all those Cubans risking their lives fleeing to Florida on dinky boats are loco.

2 comments:

joeh said...

Look on the bright side: this could lead to the wholesale acceptance of Gematria as an analytic tool in the 21st century. Imagine the possibilities--"Anomalies in Quantum String Theory resolved through the use of Gematria"," Gematria adjustments to the Navier-Stokes equation", etc.

Anonymous said...

This reminds me of a scene in "My Blue Heaven" where Steve Martin plays an ex-mafia member who is currently in a witness protection program in a US suburb. His program officer asks him for his Social Security Number and when Martin dictates the numbers one-by-one, very randomly, the officer counts the digits he just jotted down and comments that there is one digit too many, to which Martin replies, "Knock off the 5".

 
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